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Impact of National Vaccination Policies on Measles Elimination: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of 35 Countries

Authors: Janne Estill¹, Shengli Wu², Song Su³*  


Affiliations:  

¹ University of Geneva, Geneva 1211, Switzerland

² LifeCenter Northwest, Seattle 98101, USA

³ The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou 646000, China


*Corresponding Author:Song Su, Email: 13882778554@163.com

Abstract

This interrupted time series analysis evaluated the impact of national vaccination policies on measles elimination progress across 35 countries from 2000 to 2023. Using longitudinal data from WHO and national surveillance systems, we found that countries implementing mandatory vaccination laws combined with robust catch-up campaigns achieved significantly greater reductions in measles incidence. Policy interventions were associated with an immediate 45% reduction in measles cases and an additional 6% annual decline post-implementation. The effectiveness varied by policy stringency, implementation timing, and healthcare system capacity, providing crucial evidence for optimizing vaccination strategies in measles elimination efforts.

Keywords: Measles Elimination; Vaccination Policy; Interrupted Time Series; Immunization Programs; Public Health Policy; Infectious Disease Epidemiology

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