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Construction and comparative analysis of an early screening prediction model for fatty liver in elderly patients based on machine learning


Xiaolei Cai1*, Qi Sun2*, Cen Qiu2*, Zhenyu Xie1, Jiahao He2, Mengting Tu3, Xinran Zhang2, Yang Liu2, Zhaojun Tan2, Yutong Xie2, Xixuan He1, Yujing Ren1, Chunhong Xue1, Siqi Wang2, Linrong Yuan2, Miao Yu2, Xuelin Cheng4, Xiaopan Li4, Sunfang Jiang4, Huirong Zhu1


1Tangqiao Community Health Service Center, Shanghai 200127, China. 2Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Shanghai 201318, China. 3Shanghai DianJi University, Shanghai 201306, China. 4Health Man-agement Center, Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.*The authors contribute equally.


Address correspondence to: Sunfang Jiang, Health Management Center, Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, Gate 5 East Campus, No. 179 Fenglin Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200032, China. Email: jiang.sunfang@zs-hospital.sh.cn. Huirong Zhu, Tangqiao Community Health Service Center, No.131 Pujian Road, Pudong New District, Shanghai 200127, China. Email: rachel1022@126.com.


DOI: https://doi.org/10.61189/568091unpkqk


Received May 11, 2024; Accepted July 16, 2024; Published September 30, 2024


Highlights

●This study collected three years of physical examination data from older adults in the Tangqiao community of Shanghai, which is more regionally representative.

●The most suitable model for this study was selected from six machine learning models to construct a fatty liver risk prediction model for the elderly.

●This study combines six feature selection algorithms with varying performance to screen the features most rele vant to fatty liver.


Abstract

Objective: To construct a prediction model for fatty liver disease (FLD) among elderly residents in community using machine learning (ML) algorithms and evaluate its effectiveness. Methods: The physical examination data of 4989 elderly people (aged over 60 years) in a street of Shanghai from 2019 to 2023 were collected. The subjects were divided into a training set and a testing set in a 7:3 ratio. Using feature selection and importance sorting methods, eight indicators were selected, including high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, uric acid, triglycerides, albumin, red blood cell, white blood cell, and alanine aminotransferase. Six ML models, including Categorical Features Gradient Boosting, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Logistic Regression, were constricted, and their predictive performances were compared via accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. Results: Among the six ML models, the Categorical Features Gradient Boosting model demonstrated the highest prediction accuracy of 0.74 for FLD in elderly community population, along with a precision of 0.70, a recall of 0.73, a F1 score of 0.71, and an area under the curve of 0.74. Conclusions: In the context of rapid development of artificial intelligence, a community-based elderly FLD prediction model constructed using ML algorithms aid family general practitioners in the early diagnosis, early treatment, and health management of local FLD patients.

Keywords: Fatty liver, machine learning models, disease screening, health management, community diagnosis

Cai XL, Sun Q, Qiu C, et al. Construction and comparative analysis of an early screening prediction model for fatty liver in elderly patients based on machine learning. Prog in Med Devices. 2024 Sept;2(3):124-132. doi: 10.61189/568091unpkqk.
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